Solar power station are expected to conservatively add 1,000GW and 2,400GW globally by 2030 and 2060.
Since the second half of 2020, domestic and international carbon peaking and carbon neutral policies have been issued frequently, driving top-down growth in installed capacity and increasing the certainty and growth of the industry in the long term. In China, the annual increase of PV installation in 2021-2025 will be 85GW, and the annual installed capacity during 2025-2030 and 2030-2060 will exceed 140 GW and 300GW. In Europe, a 55% reduction target is conservatively assumed, and the average annual new PV installation in 2030 is 38.6GW, a significant increase from the current 25GW.
Photovoltaic system costs have continued to decline over the past 10 years, from nearly 60 yuan / W in 2007 down to about 4 yuan / W in 2020. The corresponding LCOE cost has gradually dropped from 2 RMB/kWh to about 0.3-0.4 RMB/kWh. Compared to coal power 0.2-0.4 yuan /kWh LCOE cost, already in some areas compared to coal power has a cost advantage, followed by further decline in the cost of photovoltaic power generation, installed demand growth momentum is strong.
We take 2020-2030 global power generation growth rate of 2.5%, 2030-2060 power generation growth rate of 2.0%; coal, thermal power gradually withdraw, hydropower, nuclear power, biomass small-scale development; the main development of wind and photovoltaic as the main energy system. According to the current conservative planning goals of each country, it is expected that by 2030, 2060, the global conservative PV new installed capacity of 1000GW, 2400GW.
Among them, the compound growth rate of installed power is expected to reach 25%-30% in 2021-2025, and the compound growth rate of installed power is still conservatively estimated to reach about 18%-20% in 2026-2030.